(Mortarion, Daemon Primarch | Art by Helge C. Balzer)

Hammer Time

A year ago, we kicked off a 40k race—for Warhammer, that is. Now it’s time to check our work.

We’re back for another edition of The Over/Under, the series where we guess how popular new commanders will become one year after release. Back then, the line was 600 decks, and I assigned an “Over” and “Under” that line to each commander. The following results are pulled from screenshots taken on October 7 of this year. One last thing: You can review last year’s article, or you can keep reading, since I’ll be quoting it here and there throughout.

So where did I succeed? Where did I fail? Where will the hammer fall hardest? Keep reading to find out.

Overall Impressions

Go figure, but commander products always put up big numbers on EDHREC. Our experts are still checking into why. While they review, let’s review the overall stats:

Total number of commanders: 24
Total number of commander decks: 47,637
Average commander deck count: 1,985
Most decks: Ghyrson Starn, Kelermorph (8900 decks)
Fewest decks: Old One Eye (118 decks)

For comparison, Warhammer had a higher average deck count than Dominaria United’s 1,316, and far higher than Unfinity’s paltry 238. Ghyrson Starn, Kelermorph also stands out as a top commander, cracking the all-time top 50 of EDHREC. The set also featured several impressive mono-black commanders, with Imotekh the Stormlord and Trazyn the Infinite both pulling quadruple digits. Plus, we got an all-time great typal commander in Be’lakor, the Dark Master, which has made more than 6k Demon deckbuilders very happy.

On the downside, I wonder whether the flavor of Warhammer successfully ported over to Magic with this set. The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth felt like a more natural pairing, both flavorfully and mechanically. The cards of 40k, on the other hand, felt a little less evocative, especially on generically powerful cards like Marneus Calgar and The Swarmlord. I’m sure my disinterest in the source material has something to do with this feeling, but I couldn’t shake it, even a year later.

Still, this set had plenty of sweet and interesting commanders. Let’s take a closer look at them next.

My Solid Selections

I already mentioned it, but this was probably my best prediction of the set.

Last year’s prediction: Over (Can’t-Miss Pick)

Final deck count: 8,900

It’s always nice when my Can’t-Miss Pick happens to be the most popular commander in the set, not to mention the second most popular Izzet commander ever (trailing my personal favorite Niv-Mizzet, Parun). Here’s my take on Starn from last year’s article:

“With our friend Ghyrson here, basically any blue, red, or colorless card with the number one on it becomes playable.”

Boy was I right. What other deck has End the Festivities and Electrickery as two of its Top 10 High Synergy Cards? Also nice to see Gelectrode on that list, since it’s a pet card from my younger days. Plus, a repeatable, zero-mana Lightning Bolt on a stick ain’t bad.

Now for our next commander…

Last year’s prediction: Over

Final deck count: 6,186

This was the set’s second most popular commander, and the card I was most likely to build around (spoiler: I haven’t…yet). I should probably get on that, though, what with the addition of The Beast, Deathless Prince from Doctor Who, as well as old demonic stalwarts like Rakdos, the Showstopper and Kardur, Doomscourge. This deck looks sweet.

Speaking of sweet, how about our next commander?

Last year’s prediction: Over

Final deck count: 3,618

Hungry? If not, you’re about to be. Just check out my analysis from last year:

“Cascade on a commander is like guacamole on a burrito: you just know it’s going to be a hit.”

That sounds scrumptious. You know what else is scrumptious? Unruly Catapult, Blood for the Blood God!, and Creeping Bloodsucker, all of which appear frequently in these decks. Overall, this strikes me as an improved take on the classic Rakdos, Lord of Riots, though Abaddon is still only about half as popular.

There were several Under predictions I wanted to mention as well, starting with…

Last year’s prediction: Under

Final deck count: 560

Forty decks short is a close call indeed. Here was my rationale for choosing the Under:

“Mortarion is the sort of bad influence your mother warned you about in school: he rewards you for doing something detrimental to your health. He’s also a six-mana commander with no immediate value. Sure, he goes off with Bolas’s Citadel, but what doesn’t? Your mother doesn’t approve, and I don’t, either.”

Shoutout to all the moms out there. Also, shoutout to Bolas’s Citadel, which does indeed appear in 72% of these decks. Close, but no 600.

We had another close call with our next commander:

Last year’s prediction: Under

Final deck count: 525

I’m sure seeing Cherubael was great fun for Warhammer fans, but for Magic players, it was just downside. I mentioned why in last year’s article:

“…With a limit of one Demon at a time, I don’t see this card making 600.”

Yes, since the Cherubael tokens are legendary, you can’t accumulate multiples, and I think that was the defining factor in Eisenhorn going Under. We even see a savvy 12% of deckbuilders adding Sakashima of a Thousand Faces to their lists to circumvent this shortcoming. Alas, it wasn’t enough.

Speaking of not enough…

Last year’s prediction: Under

Final deck count: 250

Though I went pretty far with last year’s thoughts, in some ways I think I didn’t go far enough.

“You’ve got to really trust your playgroup to believe in this card. Its value is entirely contingent on how likely your friends are to give you something awesome from the graveyard. In my playgroup, the answer would be, to quote Jerry Seinfeld, not bloody likely. Also, that’s assuming you’ve found a way to damage someone with your 3/3 non-evasive commander.”

Cue the Seinfeld music, because I’ve got a question: What’s the deal with this card, anyway? Not only are the above criticisms valid, but there’s something else I forgot to complain about…you have to make the first move!

If your opponent had to choose first and they gave you a crummy permanent, you could respond by giving them a card of equal crumminess. Instead, you might very well put a Baleful Strix back into their hand, while they give you a measly Swamp in return! To quote Cosmo Kramer, I’m out.

And the last of the correct Under predictions I’d like to mention is this thing:

Last year’s prediction: Under

Final deck count: 320

As you’ll see from my analysis, I was concerned about redundancy with this commander:

“The Red Terror (a.k.a. Lord of the Pingers) gets big fast. Problem is, if you’re into this effect, you probably already have a Torbran, Thane of Red Fell deck. I doubt many players will be compelled to abandon it.”

The funny thing is, there was another commander in this very set that rendered Red Terror obsolete, too: Ghyrson Starn, Kelermorph! The lesson learned here is that while many commanders can still go Over with one similar preexisting commander, it’s almost impossible when there are two. And it’s even worse when one of those happens to be the most popular commander in the set.

Alright, enough of my successes. We’re being too positive. Warhammer 40k is all about grim darkness, so let’s get grimdark.

My Big Mistakes

There were only six of them this time around, and all but two were Under predictions that went Over. And those two are…

Last year’s predictions for both: Over

Final deck counts: 118 and 292, respectively

Re: Old One Eye…are there no Timmys/Tammies out there anymore? This card offers raw stats, and lots of ’em. As I mentioned last year…

“…We get 11 power and toughness over two bodies, all of it with trample, plus the potential for recursion. Also, it gets downright scary with blink effects and populate.”

“Blink effects,” eh? I kind of forgot that those barely exist in mono-green. Also, I’m seeing minimal populate payoffs in these lists, aside from the occasional Selesnya Eulogist (appearing in just 19% of decks). A definite misfire on my part.

Lucius the Eternal was another one, albeit for different reasons. My thoughts from last year are as follows:

“Unless there are no other creatures on the battlefield (unlikely), you pretty much only pay for Lucius once. After that, just pick the creature most likely to die or blink. With the dearth of targeted removal in Rakdos, it should be easy to get your Lucius back.”

We see plenty such removal in Lucius lists, plus all five of the five cards I later suggested running in these decks. In other words, my analysis was spot-on. So why then did it fail?

My guess is a lack of intrinsic power. Though Lucius is a novel design with some decent potential, it ultimately requires too much setup for not enough payoff. It’s either that or his attire, since wearing armour made of shrieking souls seems like a bad way to make friends.

If you want a better way to make friends, try my next incorrect pick:

Last year’s prediction: Under

Final deck count: 796

Granted, this guy is a betrayer. However, he also helps everyone draw cards, which I sort of glossed over in my take from last year.

“…Though Khârn seems fun, he’s more of a standalone oddity than a clear build-around.”

Nope. It’s a clear build-around—I just didn’t see it. Most Khârn lists load up on goad effects and pingers, which force Khârn to attack other players and keep him moving around the table. It’s actually a pretty interesting commander, now that I see how it functions.

There’s a lot to talk about with our next incorrect Under.

Last year’s prediction: Under

Final deck count: 930

I surprised myself with this pick simply because of my interests; I usually love reanimator commanders! Let’s examine where my head was at…

“Mono-white isn’t as bad as it used to be, but it’s still not great, especially on this understatted five-mana commander. Celestine is somewhat redeemed by her effective keyword combo and recursion ability, yet I think her cons will ultimately outweigh her pros.”

In this case, I think the poor stats might’ve actually been a tell. Were Celestine, say, a 5/5, she might’ve been too intrinsically powerful. As a 3/4, she requires additional build-around support, which makes for a more interesting deck construction experience overall. Just check out all the lifegain cards in most lists (Cleric Class, Rhox Faithmender, Daxos, Blessed by the Sun, etc.), plus some creative ways to get useful creatures into the graveyard (Collector’s Vault, Radiant Solar, Ranger-Captain of Eos, etc.). A way cooler commander than I initially gave it credit for.

I’d like to group our final two commanders into one topic…

Last year’s predictions: Unders for both

Final deck counts: 808 and 929, respectively

The lesson here is clear: Never bet against face commanders (i.e. the commanders gracing the front of commander boxes). Both Szarekh and Greyfax fit the bill, appearing on “Necron Dynasties” and “Forces of the Imperium,” respectively. Though I was “underwhelmed” by the former and called the latter “annoying,” both went Over, anyway. Shows what I know.

Recap

Correct Picks (18)

Anrakyr the Traveller – Over (675 decks)
Imotekh the Stormlord – Over (3,504 decks)
Trazyn the Infinite – Over (1,466 decks)
Commissar Severina Raine – Over (1,113 decks)
Ghyrson Starn, Kelermorph – Over (8,900 decks, Can’t-Miss Pick)
Magnus the Red – Over (2,463 decks)
Marneus Calgar – Over (5,834 decks)
Abaddon the Despoiler – Over (3,618 decks)
Be’lakor, the Dark Master – Over (6,186 decks)
Magus Lucea Kane – Over (6021 decks)
The Swarmlord – Over (1,414 decks)
Illuminor Szeras – Under (269 decks)
Mortarion, Daemon Primarch – Under (560 decks)
The Red Terror – Under (320 decks)
Belisarius Cawl – Under (390 decks)
Inquisitor Eisenhorn – Under (525 decks)
Deathleaper, Terror Weapon – Under (256 decks)
Neyam Shai Murad – Under (250 decks)

Incorrect Picks (6)

Old One Eye – Over Under (118 decks)
Lucius the Eternal – Over Under (292 decks)
Celestine, the Living Saint – Under Over (930 decks)
Szarekh, the Silent King – Under Over (808 decks)
Khârn the Betrayer – Under Over (796 decks)
Inquisitor Greyfax – Under Over (929 decks)

My Warhammer 40k Correct Prediction Percentage: 75%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 74%

Ever since a huge drop off between Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty and Streets of New Capenna, I’ve been gaining about two percentage points with each set. At this rate, I’ll finally get a 100% in a little over two years. Until then, hope you’ll stick with me!

Read more:

The Over/Under – Predicting the Popularity of Lost Caverns of Ixalan and Jurassic Park Commanders

Too-Specific Top 10 – Discarding Impulse

 Were Kyle’s predictions right around who would be the most popular Warhammer commanders?  Read More Articles, Abaddon the Despoiler, Anrakyr the Traveller, Be’lakor the Dark Master, belisarius cawl, Celestine the Living Saint, Commissar Severina Raine, Deathleaper Terror Weapon, ghyrson starn kelermorph, Illuminor Szeras, Imotekh the Stormlord, inquisitor eisenhorn, inquisitor greyfax, Khârn the Betrayer, Lucius the Eternal, Magnus the Red, Magus Lucea Kane, marneus calgar, Mortarion Daemon Primarch, neyam shai murad, Old One Eye, Szarekh the Silent King, the 600, the over/under, the red terror, The Swarmlord, Trazyn the Infinite, warhammer 40k EDHREC